Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Personal correlations - unemployment statistics

Transformative learning has been said to be primarily a reflective process. As such, it may only be possible in hindsight. This presents a challenge from a curriculum development perspective. It may not be possible to control facilitation of the construction of such knowledge structures.

Yesterday's newspapers were full of the latest employment data, or should I say the lack thereof. I do not refer to a lack of information, of course. This was cause for reflection on my part.

There have been four peaks since I graduated from high school in 1979. I find it notable that high points in the joblessness numbers empirically line up with decisions and transitions in my life.

What brought this to my mind was how the pundits, in unison, declared today's situation to be the worst in "X" number years. Fifteen years ago I relocated to Miami. Nationally, unemployment rose to over 7% that year, and this may have been an obstacle for me. My mother has recently begun again to ask that I return to South Florida, which has highlighted memories of 1994. Perhaps some wisdom that I gained during that time is now being activated. I should state that while I am certainly older, I make no claim of being wiser.

Of course, the worst job situation in the United States since the Great Depression was in 1983 and into 1984. The rate was 9.7% the month that I graduated from college. The Federal Reserve, under Volcker, had "shocked" the economy to defeat the stagflation of the 1970s. Again, decisions I made may not have been optimal. Specifically, I declined the option that I had created to matriculate at the Graduate School of Business. I entered the job market instead. This may have been because my future wife, who is older than I, had preferred not to be tied to the University at that time. In addition, my student loans seemed insurmountable, however that is the one obligation that I have successfully managed over time.

Do I even have to say when the most recent spike idled our workers? It was during 2002. The statistics are national, but coming to Philadelphia then was complex for many reasons. I now see that the city has been in a long, steady decline. Back in 1983, Philadelphia was the 4th largest regional economy in the United States, a manufacturing center. Today it stands at ninth. On the bright side, it seems that an equilibrium may have finally come here.

I photographed burned out cars in the city the day after last fall's sports triumph. I was going to post them with the caption "World's Serious Hangover." I decided not to do so, since my visual communications are even more of a pain for everyone to decode than my writing. That said, burned cars are the iconography of this learning sequence.

The question remains, what will this new spike mean to me? We do not yet know how high the jobless rate will become during the months ahead. Is this statistic a valid indicator in my life, so that I have a new transition to face?

I see that it would be ironic were I to finally give up my tattered and under capitalized business. How funny to do that during such an upheaval. Just think, I have made copies, sold pens and waited on table. This is perfect experience for the emerging debacle. I went back into Sears recently to pay my bill, but I could not visit any of the associates that I knew when I worked there. They are all gone. I was able to observe firsthand how the consumer durable goods business, which had been exceptionally kind to me, is now a smoking ruin.

If history could be a learning opportunity, then 1983, 1994 and 2002 would lead me to believe a new fumble is pending from yours truly, the prince of bumble. I ask now for your support. Best regards -D

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Reflections - A Catalog Mindtool and its Limitations

The tool was developed for practical use within a specific community of practice. In this field, custom publishing, managers may have to consider variance from existing specifications from time to time. The mindtool is an attempt to scaffold higher order thought processes in addition to the proxy goal of modeling a specific project.

My first peer criticism is that this is certainly arcane. It would be difficult to interpret the use of this mindtool outside of the community of practice for which it was designed. The intended use as a mindtool is based in the inherent capability of a spreadsheet to model "what if" scenarios.

The tool is intended to work as a desktop utility that could model a custom publishing project without having to refer to outside resources. There would be no need to call the printer, for instance, to solicit another hypothetical price quotation. The effect on the user would be to offer an instant solution, while facilitating critical thinking.

Difficulty with assessment is the other key problem with the tool. As a developer, I have attempted to create an assessment that is a generalized gateway to reflection, using the details of the project as a base. Since the learner is independent, there is no assurance that the assessment will be undertaken at all. If it is, the answer that the learner is given is not intended to be right or wrong, but just another point to consider.

Improvements that come to mind immediately include the fact the user interface is not as easy as it could be. Until I can script it, the user has to do the work of posting data in the spreadsheet. However, even the final script will still require the viewing of the manufacturing cost matrix in a separate window, and the user will have to determine the appropriate value to be entered. This learner involvement will help drive the issue of choices and comparison. After all, our purpose is to create a conduit to critical thinking, not just solve an immediate need.

Unfortunately, the great majority of the users of this tool will never go beyond basic utility, and this is a critical flaw. Just as a pocketknife might not excite as it slices the apple, this tool could be folded up and reinserted in pocket. However, I am encouraged that some learners may undergo conceptual change initiated by this technology, even in its current beta format.

I looked at several models that were much more complex, but that is a dead end, despite superior accuracy. Future development of this mindtool must focus on assessment, not on the specific application. The challenge will be to interact with the remote learners who are using the tool. Once this is hosted online, facilities will be created so that users can provide feedback and ask for an independent review of their project. This future engagement of the users will potentially allow this developer to gather information and then strengthen assessment accordingly.

Catalog Mindtool - Assessment

Catalog Production Mindtool

Catalog Production Mindtool

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Thursday, October 2, 2008

A specific tool that is adaptable - example of catalog development

It was Cesar Ritz, the French hotelier, who coined the phrase "Le client n'a jamais tort." However, not only has Mr. Ritz turned out to be wrong, so has the customer. When the customer owns their business, he or she may or may not be receptive to formal learning opportunities. Unfortunately for those that decline to participate, the conceptual change that can emerge from these experiences can have important impact on the survival of an enterprise.

My perspective about this was formed during the implosion of the printing industry. Two technological trends converged, beginning during the 1990s. First, technology brought a revolution in productivity. For instance, certain typesetting activities required three working days for a professional to complete at the start of my career. Now these processes can be undertaken by almost anyone and discharged very quickly, perhaps in less than a minute. Enormous increases in capacity developed in this marketplace during the late 1980s.

In addition, technology brought a new way of communicating, the internet. Beginning in 1995, this form of communication began to significantly reduce demand for printed material. The combination of increased capacity and decreased demand has been a real challenge for every segment of this industry.

Working as a consultant during those years, I saw many firms in my purview close. I had tried to help many of them stay in business, but I found that managers and owners were unable to embrace conceptual change. This experience has led me to consider development of self directed, internet based mindtools for executive use.

A basic framework for the tool would be the lowly spreadsheet, which could be adapted to model very specific work processes. In our current setting, I perceive another industry undergoing structural change, the import of consumer goods. I will propose a tool to facilitate critical thinking in that marketplace.

For quite a few years, importing has been very profitable. Wage arbitrage moved the manufacture of goods to the lowest cost markets, and subsidized energy facilitated globalization via movement of the merchandise. Once imported into the USA, goods could be sold at the customary price levels. WalMart is a household name that was built using this model, but many firms that wholesale adopted these systems.

Now structural changes are manifest that will make importing a very difficult business, as printing became in the 1990s. Specific factors include poor demand, a falling US Dollar, and increased energy costs, among others. From my perspective as a consultant, I hope to help client firms stay focused on their core competences, which in this segment would be sourcing the highest quality products at the lowest cost, and maintaining relationships with distribution networks inside the USA.

The specific task to be modeled in this case is the development of the wholesale importer's product catalog, which I consider to be a simple curriculum document. Our team has worked with X to produce their full line catalog. This type of project includes extensive custom product photography, layout, printing, binding and mailing. Staff at the client firm focus on product development and on their market, which is the professional clergy.

From the example, it should be clear that is document is a major undertaking, even though it has an unsophisticated curriculum structure. Because technology has brought document creation and production tools to the end user at the desktop, other firms in the wholesale import market have decided to implement their own internal systems for developing these books. This writer feels that this would be a poor allocation of resources, the equivalent of the home run hitter taking his eye off of the ball.

Implicit in my understanding of buying and selling are parallels to education. Buyers are given the task of learning about the marketplace to determine optimal solutions to enterprise requirements. Sellers present solutions, however there is considerable bias. In the segment being considered, the wholesaler's catalog is a means for the buyer to learn what is available. Comparisons are made between catalogs of different firms, and buyers reflect upon the options presented.

This mindtool will be a self directed means for the leader of marketing, possibly the owner, to evaluate how their curriculum should be developed. The spreadsheet will have a user interface that will gather all specifications of the project. In addition, information about "soft" costs and opportunity costs will be included in calculations to the extent that the user will provide them in good faith. The graphical display functions of the spreadsheet will be used to rerepresent information from the ledger entries.

The learning outcomes, if the experience is undertaken at all, would be completely user driven. A bias is that the mindtool may show the value of my curriculum development capability in the user's specific context.

This tool will be easy to use and computer based. It can be generalized and then applied to other models distinct from merchandise wholesaling. The model of alternate processes stimulates critical thinking as the user compares various possible alternatives.

Although cost structure is the primary approach taken in model development within the tool, outsourcing business process is not just about reduced expenditure. As the marketplace morphs, this can be perceived as a tool for strategic decisions. Adaptability will be key to ongoing operation in this segment, and conceptual change will support development of evolving business structures to meet new challenges.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008